The correct result of every Premier League gameweek 14 fixture revealed, according to statistics

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xg explains

With the help of expected goals, talkSPORT.com looks at how the weekend’s matches should have finished

The Premier League provided plenty of action across another fantastic weekend of games.

Arsenal’s thrilling north London derby win over Tottenham Hotspur was undoubtedly the highlight and they deserved the 4-2 success, while Liverpool sneaked a victory in added time over rivals Everton thanks to a rare Divock Origi goal.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang celebrates his opening goal in the north London derby

But do the results we got reflect what actually happened in the matches we witnessed?

Find out below how every team performed compared to their expected goals in the 13th round of Premier League matches thanks to statistics from Understat.com…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

 

Should a team end with a higher xG than actual goals scored, it is probable they were wasteful in front of goal due to poor finishing or an in-form opposition goalkeeper. If the real goals scored is higher than the xG, the team may have been lucky to score so many in that match, or have an above average finisher scoring hard chances others would miss.


Cardiff City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Real result: 2-1
xG result: 1.09-1.15

Cardiff City boss Neil Warnock celebrates victory

Cardiff City boss Neil Warnock celebrates victory

Crystal Palace vs Burnley

Real result: 2-0
xG result: 1.92-0.30

Crystal Palace players celebrate Andros Townsend’s goal against Burnley.

Crystal Palace players celebrate Andros Townsend’s goal against Burnley.

Huddersfield Town vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Real result: 1-2
xG result: 0.59-1.19

Florin Andone nets the winner for Brighton

Florin Andone nets the winner for Brighton

Leicester City vs Watford

Real result: 2-0
xG result: 1.41-1.08

Leicester City stars Jamie Vardy and James Maddison celebrate scoring against Watford.

Leicester City stars Jamie Vardy and James Maddison celebrate scoring against Watford.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Real result: 3-1
xG result: 2.83-0.27

Manchester City remain top of the Premier League having beaten Bournemouth.

Manchester City remain top of the Premier League having beaten Bournemouth.

Newcastle United vs West Ham United

Real result: 0-3
xG result: 1.11-2.62

West Ham ended Newcastle’s good run.

West Ham ended Newcastle’s good run.

Southampton vs Manchester United

Real result: 2-2
xG result: 0.62-0.90

A goal from Romelu Lukaku couldn’t help Manchester United to victory over Southampton.

A goal from Romelu Lukaku couldn’t help Manchester United to victory over Southampton.

Chelsea vs Fulham

Real result: 2-0
xG result: 2.17-0.29

Chelsea stars Eden Hazard and Cesar Azpilicueta applaud their fans.

Chelsea stars Eden Hazard and Cesar Azpilicueta applaud their fans.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur

Real result: 4-2
xG result: 2.20-1.09

Arsenal players celebrate during their excellent north London derby win over Tottenham.

Arsenal players celebrate during their excellent north London derby win over Tottenham.

Liverpool vs Everton

Real result: 1-0
xG result: 3.04-1.23

Liverpool players celebrate with match-winner Divock Origi.

Liverpool players celebrate with match-winner Divock Origi.

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