Alternative standings after 16 matches, based on expected goals

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This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look with more than a third of the season gone

Another Premier League gameweek is in the books and it gave us a big shift in the title race.

Liverpool are now top of the table having defeated Bournemouth and then seen Chelsea beat Manchester City 2-0 at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea stars Ross Barkley and David Luiz celebrate against Manchester City.

Given everyone had thought Pep Guardiola’s men had an air of invincibility about them, it’s certainly altered a few perceptions about how the season will pan out.

And it’s put extra life into a title race which looked like it was going involve just two clubs, with Tottenham and Arsenal now both sniffing around Chelsea, Man City, and Liverpool.


But how has this changed the alternative Premier League table based on expected goals?

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how players and clubs are performing based on their xG stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

What is expected goals?


20. Burnley – real position = 17

Real points = 9 | Expected points = 11.24

19. Fulham – real position = 20

Real points = 9 | Expected points = 12.04

18. Newcastle – real position = 15

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 13.52

DeAndre Yedlin and his Newcastle team-mate look on in disbelief after he is handed a straight red card for a tackle on Diogo Jota

DeAndre Yedlin and his Newcastle team-mate look on in disbelief after he is handed a straight red card for a tackle on Diogo Jota

17. Brighton – real position = 13

Real points = 21 | Expected points = 14.40

16. Huddersfield – real position = 18

Real points = 10 | Expected points = 14.50

15. Southampton – real position = 19

Real points = 9 | Expected points = 17.69

14. Cardiff – real position = 14

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 18.18

Cardiff City’s home form could keep them up

Cardiff City’s home form could keep them up

13. Crystal Palace – real position = 16

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 19.81

12. West Ham – real position = 11

Real points = 18 | Expected points = 20.36

West Ham are finding their feet under Manuel Pellegrini

West Ham are finding their feet under Manuel Pellegrini

11. Everton – real position = 7

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 22.35

10. Leicester – real position = 9

Real points = 22 | Expected points = 23.12

9. Bournemouth – real position = 8

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 23.28

8. Manchester United – real position = 6

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 23.28

Manchester United’s players gave Jose Mourinho a much-needed win

Manchester United’s players gave Jose Mourinho a much-needed win

7. Watford – real position = 12

Real points = 20 | Expected points = 23.79

6. Arsenal – real position = 5

Real points = 31 | Expected points = 25.06

Lucas Torreira won it for Arsenal late on against Huddersfield

Lucas Torreira won it for Arsenal late on against Huddersfield

5. Wolves – real position = 10

Real points = 19 | Expected points = 26.50

4. Tottenham – real position = 3

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 27.57

Dele Alli scored his 50th Tottenham goal against Leicester on Saturday

Dele Alli scored his 50th Tottenham goal against Leicester on Saturday

3. Chelsea – real position = 4

Real points = 31 | Expected points = 33.39

2. Liverpool – real position = 1

Real points = 39 | Expected points = 34.47

Mohamed Salah became the quickest Liverpool player in history to reach 40 Premier League goals

Mohamed Salah became the quickest Liverpool player in history to reach 40 Premier League goals

1. Manchester City – real position = 2

Real points = 41 | Expected points = 39.74

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