Alternative Premier League table after 25 games, based on expected goals

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This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look with almost two-thirds of the season gone

The Premier League title race shows no of being dull as we enter the final third of the season.

We’re 65.7 per cent through the 2018/19 campaign now and Liverpool’s Monday night draw with West Ham has once again opened up the race for top spot.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp looked pensive after the draw with West Ham

Manchester City and Tottenham, who both won at the weekend, are now just three and five points behind the Reds, respectively, while some bookmakers already have City as favourites to lift the trophy.

It’s not just the top of the table which is thrilling, though, all clubs from 13th-placed Brighton & Hove Albion will now have the fear of relegation on their minds.

Southampton drew 1-1 with Burnley, which did neither side any favours in the battle against relegation.

Southampton drew 1-1 with Burnley, which did neither side any favours in the battle against relegation.

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how players and clubs are performing based on their xG stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Huddersfield Town – Real position = 20 

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 19.76

19. Newcastle United – Real position = 14

Real points = 24 | Expected points = 22.18

Perez celebrates scoring for Newcastle

Perez celebrates scoring for Newcastle

18. Fulham – Real position = 19

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 23.28

17. Burnley – Real position = 17

Real points = 24 | Expected points = 25.41

16. Brighton and Hove Albion – Real position = 13

Real points = 27 | Expected points = 25.63

15. Cardiff City – Real position = 18

Real points = 22 | Expected points = 25.70

The Cardiff players hold a shirt bearing Sala’s face after scoring against Bournemouth

The Cardiff players hold a shirt bearing Sala’s face after scoring against Bournemouth

14. West Ham – Real position = 12

Real points = 32 | Expected points = 28.17

13. Southampton – Real position = 16

Real points = 24 | Expected points = 28.28

12. Crystal Palace – Real position = 14

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 32.26

11. Everton – Real position = 9

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 33.23

Everton have won just three in the Premier League since the start of December

Everton have won just three in the Premier League since the start of December

10. Bournemouth – Real position = 10

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 33.71

9. Watford – Real position = 8

Real points = 34 | Expected points = 33.80

8. Leicester City – Real position = 11

Real points = 32 | Expected points = 35.42

7. Arsenal – Real position = 6

Real points = 47 | Expected points = 38.88

Emery is fighting to get Arsenal back in the top four of the Premier League

Emery is fighting to get Arsenal back in the top four of the Premier League

6. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7

Real points = 38 | Expected points = 40.00

5. Manchester United – Real position = 5

Real points = 48 | Expected points = 40.69

Rashford has become a key player for Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

Rashford has become a key player for Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

4. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 3

Real points = 57 | Expected points = 45.15

Son Heung-Min has now scored in back-to-back games for Tottenham

Son Heung-Min has now scored in back-to-back games for Tottenham

3. Chelsea – Real position = 4

Real points = 50 | Expected points = 48.95

Higuain has his first goals in Chelsea colours

Higuain has his first goals in Chelsea colours

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 62 | Expected points = 54.90

Klopp was not impressed with the officiating during Monday’s draw with West Ham

Klopp was not impressed with the officiating during Monday’s draw with West Ham

1. Manchester City – Real position = 2

Real points = 59 | Expected points = 57.56

Manchester City players celebrate during their win over Arsenal

Manchester City players celebrate during their win over Arsenal

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